As someone who’s lived through Israel’s 1996 elections, where we “went to sleep with Peres but woke up with Bibi”, I find this kind of analysis literally dangerous.
To provide some context — 6 months after a right-wing deplorable literally murdered the center-left Prime Minister Rabin, following an incitement campaign by the right, a leader of that campaign, who was trailing in the polls and even in the exit polls — snatches the majority and wins the election.
It was unthinkable, it resulted in the dismantling of a peace process and a long-term rise to power by the militant right — and it was in many ways the result of a complacent majority letting an active minority vote at a much higher rate and “steal” the election.
Our political system is not based only on “majority” and “minority”. It’s also based on the propensity of each group to be active — to campaign and to vote.
Yes, we thought “the elections were over”. Some of us went to the beach instead of to the voting booths. The country we grew up in was over by the next morning.